Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.396984 3.683011 4.009785 4.418056 4.925979 5.554750 6.424745
2025-02-09 3.018331 3.377357 3.818875 4.424557 5.278448 6.531735 8.774134
2025-02-16 2.795697 3.193592 3.708018 4.463918 5.644364 7.682881 12.710792
2025-02-23 2.571853 2.969292 3.496833 4.302071 5.638771 8.215691 16.695620
2025-03-02 2.451181 2.862365 3.424015 4.319018 5.918003 9.495401 30.585046
2025-03-09 2.345478 2.762845 3.345751 4.307363 6.136919 10.872666 133.266369
2025-03-16 2.235687 2.647518 3.230631 4.213917 6.164563 11.794410 NaN
2025-03-23 2.186783 2.612502 3.229316 4.309587 6.622188 15.037572 NaN
2025-03-30 2.090153 2.502645 3.103828 4.167219 6.491631 15.593112 NaN
2025-04-06 1.999874 2.397232 2.978075 4.010658 6.292005 15.586425 NaN
2025-04-13 1.931146 2.319728 2.890926 3.916091 6.228217 16.442081 NaN
2025-04-20 1.908346 2.307550 2.904824 4.010232 6.681921 23.091193 NaN
2025-04-27 1.899618 2.317146 2.956788 4.192048 7.503560 56.211916 NaN
2025-05-04 1.860568 2.279252 2.928233 4.209061 7.844140 284.364384 NaN
2025-05-11 1.828054 2.249450 2.910741 4.246675 8.291676 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.768124 2.175153 2.813447 4.101190 7.985333 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.738079 2.145572 2.790740 4.116577 8.336882 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.706083 2.111553 2.758196 4.106065 8.586660 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.664955 2.061843 2.695829 4.021547 8.472873 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.651702 2.054927 2.707489 4.108077 9.229535 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.608435 1.999434 2.630722 3.979234 8.831765 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.564864 1.942535 2.549892 3.837001 8.347962 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.531099 1.900349 2.493923 3.750811 8.144256 NaN NaN